Building Interpretable Climate Emulators for Economics
Additional information
Authors
Eftekhari A.,
Folini D.,
Friedl A.,
Kubler F.,
Scheidegger S.,
Schenk O.
Type
Journal Article
Year
2025
Language
English
Abstract
This paper presents a framework for developing efficient and interpretable carbon-cycle emulators (CCEs) as part of climate emulators in Integrated Assessment Models, enabling economists to custom-build CCEs accurately calibrated to advanced climate science. We propose a generalized multi-reservoir linear box-model CCE that preserves key physical quantities and can be use-case tailored for specific use cases. Three CCEs are presented for illustration: the 3SR model (replicating DICE-2016), the 4PR model (including the land biosphere), and the 4PR-X model (accounting for dynamic land-use changes like deforestation that impact the reservoir's storage capacity). Evaluation of these models within the DICE framework shows that land-use changes in the 4PR-X model significantly impact atmospheric carbon and temperatures-emphasizing the importance of using tailored climate emulators. By providing a transparent and flexible tool for policy analysis, our framework allows economists to assess the economic impacts of climate policies more accurately.
Keywords
climate change, social cost of carbon, carbon taxes, environmental policy, deep learning, integrated assessment models, DICE-2016 JEL classification: C61, E27, Q5, Q51, Q54, Q58
Journal
Economic Journal
Number ( Month )
November
Pages (or article number)
1-44
